Oil and Gas

Oil and Gas | Reservoir Engineering

Managing Uncertainty and Risk in Appraisal and Development

Course Code: N995
Instructors:  Pete Smith
Course Outline:  Download
Format and Duration
5 days

Summary

The course introduces probabilistic and deterministic approaches, their benefits and shortcomings, as applied to project approval, appraisal, reservoir surveillance and production forecasting. Included is the examination of the factors contributing to project uncertainty; subsurface, drilling, facilities, production, scheduling, cost and economics. The aim is to deepen the understanding of the complex and varying risks involved in delivering accurate estimates of production, reserves and value to key internal and external stakeholders and hence enhance decision making capability.

Duration and Training Method

This is a five-day classroom-based course with lectures supported and illustrated by worked examples, case studies and hands-on exercises. The course includes many practical applications and group exercises to develop understanding. Since participants may have different levels of background in petroleum economics and statistics there are additionally four optional pre-course eLearning modules that provide a fundamental overview of these topics. Participants are required to bring along a PC laptop running Excel.

Course Overview

Participants will learn to:

  1. Evaluate uncertainties for projects at different stages of the E&P lifecycle.
  2. Formulate problems probabilistically and systematically assess risks and uncertainties.
  3. Develop decision trees to lay-out the logic of the decision, evaluate the robustness of the decision and competently use the provided software.
  4. Estimate and prioritize risks and illustrate them with influence diagrams and Boston squares.
  5. Validate data using statistical distributions and combine them using both parametric and Monte-Carlo methods.
  6. Evaluate forecasts and present them effectively including the correlation between variables.
  7. Select the key variables in a probabilistic evaluation and manage certainty by acquiring additional data (appraisal) or design of interventions (contingency).
  8. Conduct probabilistic project scheduling and production forecasting so that a greater awareness of the critical factors to delivery become apparent.
  9. Integrate risk and uncertainty into key performance indicators.
  10. Select the key variables in a probabilistic evaluation and manage certainty by acquiring additional data (appraisal) or design of interventions (contingency).
  11. Conduct probabilistic project scheduling and production forecasting so that a greater awareness of the critical factors to delivery become apparent.
  12. Integrate risk and uncertainty into key performance indicators.
E-learning Modules available to take as a primer for the course
  • Value - Measures of project value – Strategic Fit, NPV (Net Present Value) and RoR (Rate of Return)
  • Making Decisions – Use of decision trees/ link between studies and decisions
  • Statistics and Distributions - key types and parameters
  • Combining Distributions - Parametric method

Classroom Course

  • Introduction
  • Risk and uncertainty fundamentals, definitions
  • Bayesian Revision - Value of additional data
  • Estimating Probabilities and ranges - Improving estimates by calibration
  • Finding a deterministic value that represents a distribution
  • Combining Distributions – Monte-Carlo Method - Impact of portfolio choices
  • Heuristics of Probability Estimation - ground rules for estimation
  • Correlations and dependent variables – how best to incorporate them
  • Influence Diagrams and the Boston Squares to identify key risks
  • Importance - the variables to focus upon
  • The value of Information-Value of Study, cost of delay, opportunity cost
  • The value of intervention
  • Intervention Planning and Flexibility
  • Production Forecasting
  • How to improve the process by learning – train wrecks
  • Risk Management
  • Cost Uncertainty
  • Schedule Uncertainty and Critical Paths
  • Resource Assessment - Categorisation and classification of petroleum resources
  • Intervention Planning and Flexibility
  • Production Forecasting
  • How to improve the process by learning – train wrecks

The course is designed for petroleum, reservoir and drilling engineers, and geoscientists working in multidiscipline teams.

Pete Smith

Background
Pete trained as a reservoir engineer and researcher firstly at the UK government research Institute of Hydrology Oxford, before joining BP’s research team to lead the development of novel modelling methods; building the first stochastic models to describe multi-phase fluid-flow in reservoir rocks. Moving into BP operational activities was responsible for creating the processes for managing the uncertainty in value and reserves in new field developments that became the BP standard approach.

Assignments with BP included lead engineer on Dukhan, Arab C Reservoir, Qatar; the appraisal and financial sanction of the Harding, Andrew, Foinaven and Schiehalion fields in the UKCS and managing the operated production in the Gulf of Mexico. Pete was also the founding director of the BP Institute at Cambridge University concerned with fundamental research in fluid-flow and was responsible for building their environmental technology across the BP group as Technology Vice President.

Pete helped establish the new Engineering University in Trinidad & Tobago as Associate Provost (R&D) and Professor of Petroleum Engineering between 2004 and 2008. On return to the UK, Pete became Principal Advisor in Reservoir Engineering at RPS Energy leading company reserve audits. In 2010 Pete led the Upstream Risk Management advisory activity and in 2011 became Chief Reservoir Engineer. In 2018 Pete left RPS Energy to form his own company, ReganSmith Associates, that provides training courses and consultancy to the Oil and Gas Industry.

Affiliations and Accreditation
BSc Mathematics
MSc Differential Equations
PhD Earth Sciences
C Eng. FEI Chartered Petroleum Engineer

Courses Taught
N401: Applied Development Planning
N412: A Critical Guide to Reservoir Appraisal and Development
N447: The Identification and Prioritisation of Opportunities for Effective Resource Progression
N712: Petrophysical Inputs to Reservoir Modelling
N952: Resource Assessment and Assurance
N954: Practical Approaches to Increased Recovery
N963: Fluid Flow Mechanisms - Observations of Rocks at Outcrop and Implications to Reservoir Engineering (SW Ireland)
N995: Managing Uncertainty and Risk in Appraisal and Development
R001: Oil and Gas Essentials

CEU: 4.0 Continuing Education Units
PDH: 40 Professional Development Hours
Certificate: Certificate Issued Upon Completion
RPS is accredited by the International Association for Continuing Education and Training (IACET) and is authorized to issue the IACET CEU. We comply with the ANSI/IACET Standard, which is recognised internationally as a standard of excellence in instructional practices.
We issue a Certificate of Attendance which verifies the number of training hours attended. Our courses are generally accepted by most professional licensing boards/associations towards continuing education credits. Please check with your licensing board to determine if the courses and certificate of attendance meet their specific criteria.