Oil and Gas

Participants will learn to:

1. Evaluate uncertainties for projects at different stages of the E&P lifecycle. 
2. Formulate problems probabilistically and systematically assess risks & uncertainties. 
3. Develop decision trees to lay-out the logic of the decision, evaluate the robustness of the decision and competently use the provided software. 
4. Understand the basics principles of petroleum economic analysis such as the time value of money, discounting and other project cash flow measures. 
5. Validate data using statistical distributions and combine them using both parametric and Monte- Carlo methods. 
6. Evaluate forecasts and present them effectively including the correlation between variables. 
7. Select the key variables in a probabilistic evaluation and manage certainty by acquiring additional data (appraisal) or design of interventions (contingency). 
8. Conduct probabilistic project scheduling and production forecasting so that a greater awareness of the critical factors to delivery become apparent. 
9. Integrate risk and uncertainty into key performance indicators. 
10. Select the key variables in a probabilistic evaluation and manage certainty by acquiring additional data (appraisal) or design of interventions (contingency). 
11. Conduct probabilistic project scheduling and production forecasting so that a greater awareness of the critical factors to delivery become apparent. 
12. Integrate risk and uncertainty into key economic performance indicators.

Day 1: Introduction, Risk and Uncertainty, Assessment tools, Value and Heuristics 

1. Preliminaries
2. Introduction
3. Risk & Uncertainty
4. Diagrams & Trees
5. Value
6. Financial Management
7. Heuristics & Biases

Day 2 Making Decisions, Probability Distributions, Modeling Uncertainty and Representative Values  

1. Making Decisions
2. Probability Distributions 
3. Combining Distributions
4. MC Combining
5. Volumetric Uncertainty
6. Representative Values

Day 3 - What are the Important Variables? Cost Uncertainty and Handling Correlation 

1. Importance 
2. Cost Uncertainty
3. Geological Risking
4. Correlation
5. Risk

Day 4 - Value of Information, Bayes Theorem, Schedule and Production Uncertainty, Reserves and Surveillance 

1. Value of Information and Bayes Theorem
2. Schedule Uncertainty
3. Production Uncertainty
4. Resources & Reserves
5. Reservoir Management
6. Surveillance
   

The course is designed for experienced (5 years minimum) subsurface staff who have been involved in field appraisal and development, team leaders and asset managers involved in the planning and execution of subsurface projects. It is also aimed at reservoir engineers & geoscientists wishing to gain a greater insight into uncertainty in the subsurface.